Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 13 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 16 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Freddy, category 3, was located in the central Indian Ocean, southeast of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving steadily in a westwards direction. It is forecast to move west of the Australian region on Wednesday 15th February when region ratings are expected to drop to Very Low.

For the latest information please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

High

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other signficant systems in the region and none expected to develop into a cyclone in the next seven days.

Tropical low (15U) is expected to make landfall over southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday 16th February, before moving across Northern Territory during the weekend. There is a small chance that tropical low (15U) may push off the west Kimberley coast or over Browse Basin from Monday 20th February next week. The rating for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone is Very Low for the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/