IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 14 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Friday 17 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Freddy, category 3, was located over the central Indian Ocean, southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving steadily in a westwards direction. It is forecast to move west of the Australian region on this evening, most likely prior to midnight.

For the latest information please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other signficant systems in the region.

Tropical low (15U) is expected to make landfall over southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday 16th February, before moving west across Northern Territory and then possibly over the Kimberley later in the weekend. The low may also dissipate as it is tracking westward across the Northern Territory.

By Monday 20 February there is the chance that this system may push off the west Kimberley coast or over Browse Basin though there is also the chance that it has dissipated over land prior to this time. There is a significant amount of uncertainty around this system moving over water, and whether there is any risk of development in the event that this does occur. As a result the risk of a tropical cyclone within the region remains Very Low through to Tuesday 21 February.

If this low does move across the Kimberley an increase in rainfall would be expected through the northern and eastern Kimberley later in the weekend, possibly extending to the western Kimberley early next week.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/