Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 15 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 18 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no signficant systems in the region.

Tropical low (15U) is expected to make landfall over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday 16th February, before moving west across Northern Territory and then possibly over the Kimberley later in the weekend. The low may also dissipate as it is tracking westward across the Northern Territory.

By Monday 20 February, if it hasn't dissipated over land, there is the chance that this system may move off the west Kimberley coast. There is a significant amount of uncertainty around this system moving over water, and the risk of development if this does occur is very low.

Consequently, the risk of a tropical cyclone within the region is Very Low for the next seven days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/