Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 18 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 21 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1100 AWST Saturday 18 February, a weak tropical low was near 11.9S 115.4E within the trough south of Indonesia. Whilst there will be periods of enhanced thunderstorm and rainfall activity near the low over the next 24 hours, the risk of this low developing to be a tropical cyclone is Very Low and it is forecast to weaken and dissipate by Sunday 19 February.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Another weak low may move offshore or form west of the Kimberley and to the north of the Pilbara from Wednesday 22 February. The risk of this low developing to be a tropical cyclone is Very Low for the next seven days (through to Saturday 18 February) as environmental conditions are not likely to be conducive to significant deepening of the low.

There are no other tropical systems forecast to develop within the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/