Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:24 pm WST on Sunday 19 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 22 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant systems in region at present.

A tropical low may move offshore or form west of the Kimberley and to the north of the Pilbara from Wednesday 22 February. There is large uncertainty in the model guidance on the development of this system. It may struggle to develop initially and there is a Very Low risk of it being a tropical cyclone till Friday 24 February. The environment may become more favourable for development next weekend and there is a Low risk of it being a tropical cyclone on Saturday 25 February, increasing to Moderate on Sunday 26 February.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/