Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 20 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) may move offshore or form west of the Kimberley and to the north of the Pilbara from Wednesday 22 February. Initially, development of 16U is forecast to be limited, and there is a Very Low risk of it being a tropical cyclone until Thursday 23 February. From the evening of Friday 24 February, the environment may become more favourable and there is a Low risk of 16U developing into a tropical cyclone. Over the weekend and into next week the risk of tropical cyclone development increases, with a Low risk on Saturday 25 February increasing to a Moderate risk on Sunday 26 and Monday 27 February.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/