Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:35 pm WST on Wednesday 22 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 25 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) is expected to form west of the Kimberley and to the north of the Pilbara on Thursday or Friday. Initially, development of 16U is forecast to be slow and limited, and there is a Very Low risk of it being a tropical cyclone until Saturday 25 February. Over the weekend and into next week, the risk of tropical cyclone development increases as the environment becomes more favourable, with a Low risk on Sunday 26 February, increasing to a Moderate risk on Monday 27 through Wednesday 1 March. There remains high uncertainty with the development of this system.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/