Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 23 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 26 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low (16U) has formed north of the Pilbara coast and lies near

Initially, development of 16U is forecast to be slow and limited, and there is a Very Low risk of it being a tropical cyclone until Saturday 25 February. The system may move into a more favourable environment off the west Kimberley coast from Sunday and the risk increases to Low.

From Monday 27 February, if the system remains in the favourable environment during the week, there is a Moderate chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone through to Thursday 2 March, possibly off the Pilbara or Kimberley coast or over land. There remains high uncertainty with the development of this system.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Low

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop over the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/