Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Friday 24 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 27 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low (16U) lies north of the Pilbara coast and was located near 17.6 S 116.1E at midday WST 24 February.

The system is not expected to develop over the weekend while in an unfavourable environment and probably weaken north of the Pilbara coast. Thus a Very Low risk it will be a tropical cyclone until Sunday 26 February.

From Monday 27 February, there is a slight chance the system may still have a circulation located off the west Kimberley coast in a more favourable environment. If this occurs, the system may develop further next week and from mid week potentially move to the southwest to be located off the Pilbara coast. There is a Low risk this system will be a tropical cyclone from Monday 27 February to Friday 3 March.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Low

A weak tropical system (17U) lies over land to the south of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and will remain weak and slow moving over the weekend. This system may take a more westward track early next week to be located off the west Kimberley coast from Tuesday or Wednesday where it may develop further. There is a chance it may move to the southwest to be off the Pilbara coast mid next week. There is a Low risk this system will be a tropical cyclone from Tuesday 28 February to Friday 3 March.

No other significant lows are expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/