Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 26 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 1 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (16U) lies north of the west Kimberley coast, and was located near 14.1S 122.5E at 1pm WST 26 February.

This system is expected to continue to move east or southeast. It has shown some development today, and the risk of it temporarily developing into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday 27 February) has increased to Low.

The system is likely to merge with the tropical low further east (17U, see below) on Monday night or Tuesday. The risk of 16U being a tropical cyclone decreases to Very Low from Tuesday 28 February to Sunday 5 March inclusive.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:

Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Another tropical low (17U) lies over land to the west of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, and was located near 14.9S 127.9E at 1pm WST 26 February. This system will remain slow moving over or near land through today and Monday. From Tuesday it may begin to move east into the Northern Territory.

The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Western Region during the next seven days is Very Low.

No other significant lows are expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/