IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 4:46 pm WST on Monday 27 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 2 March 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 4pm AWST 27 February, a tropical low (16U) was located near 14.1S 126.5E at 4pm AWST 27 February, near Kalumburu on the north Kimberley coast and was tracking to the east-southeast. This low is forecast to continue southeast this evening and overnight, to eventually merge with another tropical low (17U) located further to the southeast during Tuesday. Although Tropical Low 16U is a Very Low (<5%) risk of developing to be a tropical cyclone due to its position over land, gales are occurring to the north of the low over the coastal fringe and adjacent waters of the north Kimberley and are expected to continue this evening and overnight over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for conditions associated with this system and the monsoon; refer to that product for more information.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Another tropical low (17U) lies over land to the southeast of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, and was located near 17.6S 129.5E at 12pm AWST 27 February. This system will remain slow moving over land likely to move east into the Northern Territory for much of this week. In the longer term there is a large degree of uncertainty in the exact location of this low, though it is expected to be embedded within a trough that extends from inland parts of the Kimberley across to the Gulf of Carpentaria for the next seven days.

The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Western Region during the next seven days is Very Low.

No other significant lows are expected in the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/