IDW10800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:41 pm WST on Thursday 30 March 2023
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 2 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Tropical Cyclone Herman, 21U, 15.2S 104.7E at 2pm WST Thursday and is tracking to the east southeast. The system is likely to move over open waters during Friday before the environment becomes unfavourable during Saturday and the system will be steered back to the west. The ratings are High risk for 21U to maintain tropical cyclone intensity for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, a Low risk for Sunday and Monday, and Very Low risk Tuesday onwards.

This system is not expected to impact the Australian mainland, Cocos Islands, or Christmas Island.

For more details see [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/].

Likelihood of TC Herman being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 22U, may track into the northern Timor Sea this weekend, and then over open waters well north of the Pilbara coast early next week. Very Low risk increasing to Low risk on Monday 3rd April and Tuesday 4th April, and Moderate risk Wednesday 5th April and Thursday 5th April.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Weak tropical low 20U crossed the Pilbara coast early Thursday morning and weakened. Very Low risk

No other significant tropical lows are expected to form in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/