Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 4:40 pm WST on Friday 31 March 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 3 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman is over open waters of the Indian Ocean approximately 950 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and moving to the southeast. It is expected to start weakening later today and then move west and further away from the coast on Saturday. By Monday 6 April it is unlikely that it remains a tropical cyclone and this likelihood decreases to Very Low on Tuesday 4 April.

This system is not expected to impact the Australian mainland, Cocos Islands, or Christmas Island.

For more details see [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/].

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

High

Sunday:

High

Monday:

Low

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 22U, in the northern Timor Sea is expected to move west over the weekend. Early next week it is expected be over open waters well north of the Pilbara coast. It is then expected to move southwest but remain weak and well offshore. The Likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone is Very Low this weekend and up to Tuesday 4 April, and then Low from Wednesday 5 April to Friday 7 April.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

No other significant tropical lows are expected in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/