Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 1 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 4 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Herman is over open waters of the Indian Ocean approximately 820 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and is now moving slowly to the south southwest. It is expected to continue to weaken this evening and during Sunday 1 April while moving west and further away from the coast on Saturday. By Monday 2 April there is only a Low risk of it remaining a tropical cyclone. From Tuesday 3 April the likelyhood decreases to Very Low.

This system is not expected to impact the Australian mainland, Cocos Islands, or Christmas Island.

For more details see [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/].

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

High

Monday:

Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low, 22U, in the northern Timor Sea is expected to move west over the weekend. Early next week it is expected be over open waters well north of the Pilbara coast. It is then expected to move southwest but remain weak and well offshore. The Likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone is Very Low during the next seven days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

No other significant tropical lows are expected in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/