Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 3 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 6 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, is expected to form in the Arafura Sea during Wednesday or Thursday and move west. It is expected to move into the Timor Sea on the weekend where it may begin to develop. As it moves into the region early next week it may be strengthening and there is a Low likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone on Monday 10 April.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

A broad trough is leading to increased thunderstorm activity far to the north of the Pilbara coast. A tropical low may form within the trough but is expected to be weak and short lived. Meanwhile Ex-Tropical Cyclone Herman continues to weaken as it moves further west and away from the WA coast.

No other significant tropical lows are expected in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/