Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:42 pm WST on Thursday 6 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 9 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U, is developing in the Arafura Sea and is forecast to move slowly west. On the weekend it is expected to move southwest through the Timor Sea and gradually strengthen. As it continues moving southwest early next week there is a Low likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone in the region on Sunday 9 April. This increases to a High likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone in the region from Monday 10 April until at least Thursday 13 April.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Low

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/