Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 12:29 pm WST on Friday 7 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 10 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows currently in the region.

A tropical low, 23U was located near 8.8S 130.7E, about 400km north of Darwin at 11am AWST. It will be slow moving on Friday and Saturday before developing as it moves to the west southwest, through the Timor Sea north of the Kimberly coast on Sunday. By Monday 10 April it is likely to move into the western region (125E) and be a tropical cyclone. The north Kimberley coast is likely to experience an increase in storm activity from later Sunday into Monday.

The developing system is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone over open waters by Wednesday and turn to the south toward the coast. At this range a coastal impact appears likely and may be as soon as Wednesday or later in the week, most likely in the central/east Pilbara to adjacent west Kimberley region.

Hence the risk remains High from Monday 10 April through to Friday 14 April.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Low

Monday:

High

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Saturday:

Very Low

Sunday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/