Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 9:51 am WST on Saturday 8 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 11 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows currently in the region.

A tropical low, 23U was located outside the region near 9.8S 129.7E, about 600km northeast of Kalumburu at 8am AWST. It is likely to enter the region on Monday when it is forecast to reach tropical cyclone intensity and hence the risk of being a tropical cyclone increases to high and remains high through the week.

The developing system is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone over open waters on Tuesday or Wednesday and then turn to the south toward the coast. At this range a coastal impact appears likely and may be as soon as Wednesday or more likley Thursday most likely to the east Pilbara to adjacent west Kimberley coastal region.

Tropical Cyclone Advice is current: refer to latest information at: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Low

Monday:

High

Tuesday:

High

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region for the next seven days

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:

Very Low

Monday:

Very Low

Tuesday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/