Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 10 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 13 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 23U was located near 12.5S 123.2E, about 360km north northwest of Kuri Bay at 11am AWST Monday 10 April. While it is yet to develop to be a tropical cyclone, it is expected to intensify later today and hence the risk is high, and remains high through to Friday at which time it will be moving over land and beginning to weaken. By Saturday 15 April, the risk of the system remaining a tropical cyclone is Very Low. The system is expected to intensify further and directly impact the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coasts by Thursday as a severe tropical cyclone.

Refer to Tropical Cyclone warnings for the latest information at: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

High

Wednesday:

High

Thursday:

High

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region for the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Tuesday:

Very Low

Wednesday:

Very Low

Thursday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/