Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 12 April 2023
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 15 April 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

At 1400 AWST Wednesay, Tropical Cyclone Ilsa was located near 15.9S 119.5E, approximately 370 km northwest of Broome and moving to the southwest. It is forecast to intensify further on Thursday prior to impacting the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coasts later Thursday. On Friday it is forecast to accelerate overland to the southeast through the interior of Australia whilst weakening. As a result the tropical cyclone risk for the Western Region is High through to Friday 14 April and reduces to Low on Saturday 15 April then Very Low thereafter.

Refer to Tropical Cyclone warnings for the latest information at: www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

High

Friday:

High

Saturday:

Low

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other significant tropical lows expected in the region for the next seven days.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:

Very Low

Friday:

Very Low

Saturday:

Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very Low:

less than 5%

Low:

5% to 20%

Moderate:

20 to 50%

High:

Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/