PACIFIC TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST #2
for INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05 (GITA)
FEBRUARY 15 2018 @ 0600 UTC
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (ITC) GITA IS LOCATED NEAR
22.0S 173.7E
or
450 km (280 mi) east-southeast of ANEITYUM ISLAND, VANUATU (nearest landmass)
570 km (355 mi) southwest of KADAVU ISLAND, FIJI
645 km (400 mi) east of ISLE OF PINES, NEW CALEDONIA, FRANCE
650 km (405 mi) southwest of SUVA, FIJI
750 mi (465 mi) east of NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, FRANCE
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ITC GITA ARE
105 knots
or
195 km/h
54 m/s
120 mi/h
ITC GITA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
6 knots
or
11 km/h
3 m/s
7 mi/h
ITC SP04 (GITA) FORECAST
VALID FROM FEBRUARY 15 2018 @ 0600 UTC
| +12 15 18 -22.4 +171.5 105 ITC
| +24 16 06 -23.3 +170.0 100 ITC
| +48 17 06 -25.4 +166.0 85 TC
| +72 18 06 -30.0 +162.5 65 TC
The cyclone is likely to maintain winds around 100 knots near the center for the next
24 to 36 hours. Higher intensities are possible as the cyclone is currently
intensifying, but this is not expected to last much longer than 6-12 hours. GITA is
expected to pass to the south of NEW CALEDONIA around 36 hours from now, where it
will have winds around 90 knots near the center. Even if the cyclone remains offshore,
hurricane force winds (64 knots and higher) will be likely near the southern tip of
the island, especially on the ISLE OF PINES. Gale (greater than 34 knots) to storm
force (greater than 50 knots) sustained winds can be expected in NOUMEA. Beyond 36
hours, GITA will begin to turn southward under the influence of a ridge to the east
of New Zealand. GITA will weaken significantly and begin to transition into an
extratropical cyclone by 72 hours.
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